Thinking in bets

“See what the market is trying to show you, not what you want to see.”

Probabilistic thinking is likely the biggest philosophy that contributed to most of my gains over the years.

This simply means going from:

“The market will do this.”

to

“If price does this, then I will do this.”

This moves you from thinking in black & white statements → thinking in scenarios.

The thing is, we’re a lot less smart than we think we are.

Humans have rarely been right about how the majority of economic events were going to play out.

We’re terrible at taking into account current variables and making an accurate prediction of the future.

So, when you make all your trading/investing decisions with a plan in mind…

It’s not surprising for you to fail.

Instead, shift towards “if, then” thinking.

If certain conditions are met, then you do X.

And make sure to actually wait until those conditions are met before doing anything.

Often, your plans/ideas can play out nicely…

What gets in the way is your lack of patience wanting to make something happen.

Hope this helps,

Nick XBT

P.S. Have you joined the Discord? https://discord.gg/xCWgtK3bTD