Signals of The End

“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”

In other words, when we set one specific goal, people will tend to optimize for that.

This leads to ignoring other equally important factors of a situation.

What was an obvious top signal in 2017 wasn't in 2021, and the same will apply for this cycle.

We’re moving towards mass adoption.

All of retail now knows about crypto - some heard about it in 2017, and then almost everyone heard about it in 2021.

Don't mix the signs of adoption with top signals.

Another point to address - Blackrock & Co controls bitcoin now.

They are the major ETF providers and own shares of each other.

They also own all the media platforms. They can literally shape the narrative as they want.

So they pretty much control the narrative.

In other words: The indicator for this cycle will come from the people who haven’t been onboarded yet.

Yes, It can be retail who still haven't touched crypto.

But they can also be late-comers on a larger (institutional) scale:

1. Sovereign Wealth Funds

Think of countries with a sovereign wealth fund diversifying into crypto Some of them already invest in stocks. So Bitcoin won't be surprising (late into this cycle)

China - $1 trillion Norway - $1 trillion Abu Dhabi - $800 billion Singapore - $500 billion Saudi Arabia - $400 billion Qatar - $300 billion

2. Corporate Treasuries

We have already seen this in 2021 with Tesla purchasing Bitcoin. More recently, with Reddit disclosing it's crypto holdings.

The trend is just starting.

Once you see daily headlines of companies diversifying their assets into crypto ,it might be rational to start derisking.

3. Stock Market IPOs

Coinbase IPO in 2021 was the first major crypto company to be listed in the stock market.

We'll likely see tens of crypto companies doing their IPOs this run.

And at some point, one listing will mark the top.

4. Rehypothecation Crisis

The next Luna-type of collapse might come from the restaking sector and kickstart the bear market.

Everyone is overlooking the huge consequences of a depeg in this sector.

It's not here yet, but keep an eye out for this.

5. Gold Reserves

The ultimate top signal could be governments diversifying a small % of their gold reserves into Bitcoin - the "digital gold".

6. Low-Income Countries Workers Shortage

When low-income countries start having a shortage of workers because they're making a higher income compared to their jobs mapping roads with hivemapper or some Web3 games.

Happened last cycle with Axie and StepN.

Will likely happen at a larger scale this cycle.

7. Over-Leveraging

Big hedge funds, companies, and maybe even small countries over-leveraging in the final stages of the bull run and getting rekt could be another scenario we might see this cycle.

8. Las Vegas Sphere

Times Square was full of shitcoins in 2021.

The Las Vegas Sphere with crypto ads running on it for weeks straight will be the version of this cycle.

9. Funding Rounds

A pretty secure signal again will be checking the volumes of VC investments.

Funding rounds skyrocketing and surpassing tradFi ones might be an indicator again to start exiting.

Nick

Join My Private Network of Traders
Free Telegram
Free Discord

CLICK HERE